Masjid for Babar

May be a masjid for this Babar is in order. Check out: The ‘youngest headmaster in the world’

(FYI, I know Babri Masjid is not a masjid for Babur . As mentioned in the Wikipedia page, there are various versions of who built it and time lines).

Check out the comments below on the BBC page. Some are hoping the Govt will notice Babar Ali’s achievements. That is exactly my fear. May be it is best that the kids are left alone in Babar’s care. Also, I don’t think Babar and his pupil are news to the officials, that they now have to recognize them and step in.

By the time the West Bengal education bureaucracy hires teachers, bribes exchange hands to decide who will go to this god forsaken village, by the time the officially appointed teacher appoints some lesser teacher (and pays a cut out of the official salary), who inturn appoints a sweeper (for a even lesser cut out of the unofficial salary) to teach Babar’s pupils, ……….

I don’t think we need another demolision of something what a Babar has built.

Obama wins Premature Prize

I am a big fan of Obama. I have taken enough beatings from my Libertarian and Conservative friends for saying so. I have scars and emails to prove.

But Nobel for Obama? Come on! For what ?

I too like some of the attempts his administration is making to improve relations with other countries including Iran and Cuba. But these are just attempts and good intentions.

Problem is, my kids are now going to ask for rewards every time they have a good thought or intention. No results required.

Unfortunately this may even back fire on his efforts. Expectations were high anyway, but now it has been raised to unrealistic proportions.

Bad decision by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Hope is the antidote to Naxalism

My latest article in Pragati below. Please download the whole issue at Pragati

Two young auto rickshaw drivers were in the queue at the Road Transport Office (RTO). They had already lost two days’ income with no end in sight for their registration nightmare. They pointed to a decrepit old man standing outside, looking dejected in hot, humid Chennai. “He has been there for two days and has come all the way from Andhra Pradesh. Officials have been giving him the run around. A rich man can afford a tout but what will that poor man do?”

One of them added, “Naxalites should take over and ‘take care’ of all these bastards.”

A chill should shoot down our collective spine. If the urban annoyed of reasonably well governed cities feel this way, what do the helpless, in badly governed, feudal lands of India feel?

As one reads Comrades: A World History of Communism, a fascinating and sometimes sarcastic account of various attempts at utopia, one question keeps popping up—Why did communism take root in some but not other parts of the world? The author, Robert Service, whose low opinion of communism is palpable, argues that communism was welcomed by people in societies that denied them basic freedoms. Unfortunately, these oppressed people found themselves living under an even more oppressive system.

Communist parties and their fellow travellers existed in practically every democratic, liberal and capitalistic society. In the 1920s and ‘30s, especially after the economic devastation in the wake of the Great Depression, it even appeared that many of these societies would go the communist way. But they didn’t.

The Communists’ misfortune was that these nations, even in the depth of economic misery, afforded their citizens basic freedoms and better governance. Even under glaring income and wealth disparities, most people could afford to be hopeful—if not them, their children would have a better life; opportunity for upward mobility existed. Hope—near and distant—acted as barrier to the growth of communist power.

Lands which denied its citizens any hope of upward mobility, justice and rule of law fell to communist revolutionaries, many of whom were motivated by visions of an egalitarian society devoid of class and the privilege of birth.

The constituency of Naxalism comprises of those devoid of justice and even the hope of progress. Most cadres come from groups like the tribals that have been traditionally and systematically abused for long. The so called Red Corridor covers areas that have not seen governance or growth worthy of a modern nation even while other parts of India practice a vibrant democracy and chalk near double digit growth.

Contrary to what  the anti-liberalisation crowd says, these are not victims of liberalisation, but are areas untouched by liberalisation. Here, decentralised government is unknown. Crony capitalism and state-directed industrialisation usurp tribal land and resources, and the rule of law, infrastructure and services that would have helped poor create wealth and a better future are non-existent.

The antidote to Naxalism, as syrupy as it may sound, is hope. Hope is no food package to be dropped from helicopters; it needs to be built through good governance at the local level. Central planning has failed the world over. The people, including and especially in remote areas must have the power and resources to script their future.

Countless crores are spent by central and state governments in the name of the poor, especially rural and tribal. This is not only wasteful, but very often, counterproductive as well. As a starting point, abolish all central government ministries that purport to work for the upliftment of the poor.

India Today (June 18th, 2007) found that abolishing, restructuring and merging about 20 central ministries—agriculture, human resources, tribal affairs, coal, rural and the like—will save the taxpayer around Rs 76,000 crores. Why not parcel this and more, say, equally to rural and tribal families and to Gram Sabhas? Let them decide where to dig canals and lay roads, how much fertiliser to buy, how, where and when to farm and so on. Growth and progress will follow.

Wealth and income transfers are realities in any society, especially democracies. No society will tolerate drastic income and wealth disparities, especially in light of mass starvation and policy driven suicides. Until self-governance and policy sanity is restored, the real issue is how transparent and efficient such transfer processes are. Are the intended recipients receiving the maximum allocated resources? Are there simple mechanisms to the redress the wrong?

Cash transfer in various forms, combined with smart cards based identification, will bring much needed efficiency and transparency to poverty mitigation programs. Which hopefully would also be the death knell of centralised planning. Even the Left has extended great support for programmes like National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) which has effectively become a scheme of simple cash transfers.

It is a sad irony that much of the Red Corridor is not only extremely poor, but extremely resource rich, with enough land for potential factories and advanced and efficient farming these regions are also rich in coal, uranium, bauxite and other minerals. But who owns all this wealth? No one and surely not the tribals, under whose feet much of this wealth lies.

How one divides up natural resources like oil is clearly a challenge anywhere in the world. How much should each citizen of Iraq earn from the sale of a barrel of Iraqi oil? Yet there are solutions, and these must be customised for local realities through a serious and deliberative process. The Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, is an attempt in this direction, albeit with loops and holes. While General Electric can own and operate nuclear reactors around the world, why should the tribals of Jaduguda be condemned to inherit solely “disease, death and environmental destruction” from its uranium mines? Currently, in the absence of clear property rights, the tribals cannot even collect and use more mundane forest products, let alone be part of the military-industrial complex.

Improvements in the overall property rights framework must be hastened. Also, the division of resources among the original owners in a democratically consensual and transparent manner must be hastened. Warriors who see the world through the prism of class alone rightly point out that caste and tradition, and not economics alone, are also causes for oppression and injustice. As an aside, this is interesting, coming from class warriors, since caste and tradition seem to have trumped class in much of India. Undoubtedly greater devolution of power to panchayats, democratically protected participation of all castes and gender in governance, monitoring by activists and human rights agencies, greater assault on caste and gender atrocities and so on have made deep dents into oppressive and unjust structures that have existed for centuries. Programs like NREGS, cash transfers and vouchers for empowering the poor in education, insurance and health are already showing signs of accelerating this much needed redistribution of power and dignity.

This brings us to the area where government institutions must focus: the rule of law. Most humans might tolerate oppression, injustice and abuse as ephemeral if convinced about the existence of legal and civilised recourse. A functioning democracy would have enough safety valves with its judicial, police and civil society structures. But these too have atrophied in much of India, especially in the Red Corridor.

The much ballyhooed reform of police and judiciary must start, and along with this the ostensibly necessary, but much abused provisions like Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) must go. The very existence of provisions like this is, in a democratic society, a sign of decay of the rule of law and governance.

Finally, the Naxalites’ bluff must be called. There are two kinds of Naxalites: those who might join the democratic, parliamentary process when conditions are right or out of necessity; others constrained by ideological steel will negate current and future Constitutions, Parliaments and all organs of Indian democracy as a bourgeois confidence trick. The battle with the latter is eternal and needs to be fought with great stamina and long term vision. While empathising with their reading of conditions in much of India and the need for revolution, armed or peaceful, it would be foolish to deny or underestimate their long term objectives.

The power of ideology cannot be underestimated. Any group that pays obeisance to Marx—a pioneer in advocating violent revolution and one party dictatorship—and to Lenin, Stalin and Mao—main exhibits in the gallery of mass murderer—needs to be taken seriously. Further, the Naxalites are just one of the many groups of nihilists claiming to represent the oppressed.

But with the first group of Naxalites, the best way to prove the hollowness of their ideology and to defeat the  rebellion would be to hand over power to the rebels through a fair democratic election. Communism has failed no matter which nation tried it and under whatever banner. Let them have another chance to architect their ruins. The Red Corridor must have more democratic options. Naxalites who are willing to contest, win elections and implement their programmes must be encouraged. India is too large, too complex and too wise to fall apart, due to yet another tried and failed ideology. Call the red bluff. If history of economic policy is any guide, the elected Naxalites will fall to the well-known ‘anti-incumbency’ factor (an euphemism for the electorates’ rejection of a government that did not deliver)

The debate is not whether Indian society needs a revolution or not. That it needs. The debate is what the revolution will replace the current reality with. To hasten that revolution and what it brings, the rest of us only have very few, yet powerful, weapons like democracy, good governance and rule of law. These are too important to be left blunt in the hands of distant leaders and underdeveloped institutions. They must be sharpened.

Limits of power

Interesting article on limits of power, in this case Israel’s. But applies to all of us.

In the end, this is a classic study in the limits of power. Israel can have its freedom of action anytime it is willing to pay the price for it. But Israel can’t pay the price. Netanyahu is coming to Washington to see if he can get what he wants without paying the price, and we suspect strongly he knows he won’t get it. His problem is the same as that of the Arab states. There are many in Israel, particularly among Netanyahu’s supporters, who believe Israel is a great power. It isn’t. It is a nation that is strong partly because it lives in a pretty weak neighborhood, and partly because it has very strong friends. Many Israelis don’t want to be told that, and Netanyahu came to office playing on the sense of Israeli national power.

An Israeli Prime Minister Comes to Washington Again by George Friedman

Junk email and economy

I am happy to inform the world that I have started getting junk (unsolicited) email offering me jobs in the software industry. I suppose my resume is still haunting one of those job sites.  I used to get these emails by the tonne, then it stopped. Now it has started again.

Does this mean that the economy is improving? Or has the IT industry finally woken up and recognised that I am indispensable to the industry and need me back to help them fix what is ailing IT? Other that these two, I can’t think of any other reason.

May be these could be the topic of your PhD thesis:

1. Existential, Meteoroligical and Epistemological link between unsolicited job offers in tech industry and boom/bust cyle in modern economy based on worthless fiat currency. (Economics)
2. Simulation of link between frequency and timing between junk email and state of economy using non linear, coupled Vlasov-Maxwell equations. (Inter disciplinary program between Economics and Physics)
3. Junk email as catalyst for decline in mental health, increase in megalomania and self-aggrandizement (Psychiatry)

So many papers, so many thesises.

By the way, I am still waiting for all the things that were promised to me via email – my fortune from a Nigerian Princess in exile in Monaco, my six pack abs, my rock hard bottoms, free viagra (how did they know ?), vacation in exotic locations, free money for doing just about nothing, free psychiatric drugs (again, how did they know?), ……….

Who succeeds in politics?

It is election time. Every one and their dog has an opinion on how the nation should be run, who is corrupt, who is not, etc. This election has been a bit different as it seems like another direction changing election. This, even though it appears to be a very bland election, at least on the surface, with no real issues to debate.

One interesting direction changer possibly is the number of new candidates contesting the election. Some kind of a barrier has been broken. Probably an Obama effect being felt in India. Yes, even a novice can! seem to be the refrain. Which may be a good think, in the short run.

It is easy to forget how hard Obama worked and for many years towards the Presidency. That brings me to the matter at hand. There is an annoying trend especially this election cycle. Annoying, but hopefully not very harmful. This annoying trend seem to be fueled by the ease with which people can email and send documents over the internet. The educated and the elite among us seem to take politicians and their profession very lightly. To some it seems like–all you need is a good man or woman to contest and win, every thing else will fall into place.I don’t think we reserve this kind of naive contempt for any other profession.

So here is my thought on who succeeds in politics, if at all. I believe only two kinds of politicians succeed — either a Karunanidhi/Jayalalitha (K/J) type or a Rahul Gandhi/Rajiv Gandhi type. (For this discussion it does not matter whether you vote for them or like them or not).

What does it take to succeed in politics, assuming you have the natural abilities? You need a vast array of teams, organisations, contacts, networks, etc. etc. How long does it take to get all this? A very long time indeed. It takes years of toiling, speeches, plotting, begging, cajoling, coercing, etc. to even have a shot at doing anything worth doing in politics.

K/J, for example, have been in politics for years. Both are considered accomplished politicians, good administrators, nationally respected players. But they got here after spending much of their time in isolation, in opposition, sometimes even declared politically finished. Yet they have survived and stayed relevant. In power or in opposition, they have complete control, or as much as humanly possible, over their party, the state machinery, etc. They have to use all these just to stay relevant, but they also have to constantly work to expand their base, party, network, organisation, etc.

Now ask yourself, with all this–natural ability, control over the machinery and party which are absolutely required to get anything done–are they able to get all that they want? Clearly a big no. In fact I would be surprised if they are able to deliver a fraction of what they probably dream of doing.

The point is, it takes a lot of deliver even a little bit. Especially in a complex, chaotic and democratic society like India. Come to think of it, it takes a lot to deliver a bit in any society. Otherwise all dictators would be delivering amazing societies. (I am just playing along with people who think politics or govt can deliver everything in society, if only we had good political leaders. Govt/politics has a very important yet limited Or limited yet important role in society. There is only so much it can or should do. Even though are things it must do and do well.)

Now take the example of Rahul or Rajiv Gandhi. It may be too early to judge Rahul Gandhi. But Rajiv Gandhi (RG) we can judge. RG was not the most naturally gifted politician of his times. Yet he did succeed in many ways. Much of the reform, IT revolution in India, talk about youth and twenty first century started when RG was Prime Minister.

He succeeded because what K/J worked to build–party, network, contacts, power, etc.–RG inherited. Which means even if does not know how to do something, there would be enough competent veterans around him, at his service, to get the job done. Of couse this is not to take anything away from RG or other similar politicians who inherit. It takes talent to manage anything, espcially a massive organisation like the Congresss or the Prime Minister’s office.

The morale of the story as I see it is, if with all this power, K/J or RG can deliver only so much, how much can some middle class or rich, more importantly Independent candidate deliver? Have you estimated the time it takes for a group of middle class citizens, with no prior experience in politics, to establish a new, functioning and election-winning party. (By the way, in my opinion, with all due respect, if your party cannot win elections, then it is no different from any another NGO.)

These are some serious questions all arm chair politicians should consider seriously. Otherwise we cheapen politics and the fact how difficult it really is to succeed in politics.

Thanks Daniel

Thanks to Daniel, my friend, IT entrepreneur, volunteer at Chennai City Connect and Janaagraha, I am back to blogging. Thank you Daniel for your prodding and help.

How money works, or should work

I am a big fan of the late Prof Milton Friedman. But in this case I have to go with Prof Frank Shostak. Check out Shostak’s Can Friedman’s Money …., especially the part where he explains gold standard and boom-bust cycle.

One of my most cherished possessions is a letter I got from Prof Friedman. I had proudly mailed him an article my friend Marc and I wrote on international sanctions on India and published in the Economic Times.  He, in his own polite manner, congratulated us and said he had argued the same in an article in 1952. I guess some things need to be repeated year after year, decade after decade.

What is the difference?

This is a serious question. I am not simply trying to provoke.

Saw a piece on TV on fake money being pushed into India by some really bad guys via Nepal. No debate here about what should be done to them since the fake money is used to buy weapons and recruit bad guys who harm Indians. Catch them and punish them badly. Very badly.

The questions I have are about the currency.

Question: what is the difference between fake Indian rupee and the rupee printed by RBI?

Security advisor M K Narayanan said in the piece, goes something like, “though the issue is serious, there is no threat to the economy”.

I assume he means that the amount of fake money coming into India is small, compared to the amount already in circulation.  Hence the dilution is not much.

Something like the milkman adding water to milk and diluting the value of the milk you get. If he adds a lot, milk is really worthless. If he adds a few drops, not a big problem.

Question: If the milkman is RBI, and RBI is adding a lot of paper money to the system, what happens to the value of the currency that already exists in the system?

Question: why is this not considered a threat to the national security or at least a threat to the economy?

Seriously, what is the difference?

Real Money Please

This is for my friends R&G. They seem to be falling for the same trap like many others while trying to assign blame for the current economic woes. For the next few days we will continue to hear more cries for handing over more powers to central planners to “regulate”.

Few things I find amazing.

1) Only in the wonderland of regulation – you find people who had the power to do something, yet they can’t/don’t do what they claim they were supposed to do as our protectors and saviours, screw up badly, then go back to their boss (taxpayers) and say, “I screwed up badly, I need more power, more money, more authority, more ….” This they get to do again and again, and their bosses fall for the trick every time.
2) People who set the fire (dot com bubble, asset bubble, etc. with loose monetary policy and fairyland credits) to the barn (banks and financial institutions) keep pouring more fuel over the still hot embers; now want to play the role of the fire service, with more money, power, people and bigger fiefdom.

I promise you that once you understand monetary policy, your interpretation of world events (at least in the economic sphere) will never be the same again. Check out the following. Very much applicable in India or any other country you live in.

• Private Coinage
• Good and Bad Credit
• The Myth that Laissez Faire …
• Is the Fed an Inflation Fighter or Creator?
• More articles (on money, inflation, credit, crisis) from Frank Shostak

Happy enlightenment!